মার্চ 6, 2021
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR/USD. There is a saying, “a new broom sweeps clean”. If the previous US President Donald Trump were in the shoes of Joe Biden now, he would probably call the head of the Fed Jerome Powell a "traitor" for the fact that his speech on Thursday February 04 literally brought down the stock markets of America. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy.
And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the 10-year Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points.
The decline in stock prices is forcing investors to seek refuge in the dollar. As a result, the DXY dollar index reached a three-month high of 91.83 on Thursday, its growth continued Friday, March 05, and the DXY exceeded 92.00 at the time of this writing.
The data from the US labor market added optimism to investors. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased from 166K to 379K, with the forecast of 182K. As a result, the forecast, for which the majority (70%) of analysts voted last week, turned out to be absolutely correct: the EUR/USD pair continued its movement to the south, reaching a local bottom at 1.1895 and ending the week slightly higher, at 1.1915;
- GBP/USD. Graphical analysis on D1 suggested last week a sideways movement of the pair within 1.3860-1.4240. However, the channel turned out to be narrower: it was trading in the range of 1.3860-1.4000 until Thursday. And then, thanks to the statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the dollar began to grow stronger, and the GBP/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to the horizon of 1.3775. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 1.3840.
- USD/JPY. The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 6, it reversed and moved north for almost all of 2021. When making a forecast for the last week, a third of the experts sided with the bears, a third took a neutral position, and a third voted for the growth of the pair. And even fewer experts agreed that it would be able to reach the zone 108.00-108.50, they were only 25%. And they were right: the week's high was recorded at 108.60, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 108.35.
The reason for the rise of the pair is still the same: against the background of the growth in the yield of American bonds, which outstrips the yield on Japanese securities, investors get rid of such a protective asset with a negative interest rate as the yen. Along with the Japanese currency, gold and the Swiss franc are also particularly affected. In addition, the mentioned statement by Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire, after which the USD/JPY pair reached an eight-month high;
- cryptocurrencies. There is good news for the bulls: Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $43,000. But there is good news for the bears too: Bitcoin has not gone above $52,000. Having drawn a sinusoid, the BTC/USD chart returned on the afternoon of Friday, March 05 to where it started seven days ago. The question of whether this is a correction or the beginning of a new "crypto-winter" remains open.
The news background looks quite controversial as well. Leading payment systems such as Mastercard, Visa and PayPal are playing on the side of the bulls, seeking to attract the "crypto generation". Skrill and Neteller are doing the same. The Opera browser has been enriched with new algorithms that will allow users to perform transactions with many popular cryptocurrencies. Another Opera feature would be creating a digital wallet without going to third-party sites. Such a giant as Google also turned to cryptocurrencies: the Google Finance platform added a tab for monitoring the prices of digital assets.
User activity is growing. The trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges in February exceeded $1 trillion. Such numbers were achieved for the first time in history, according to experts. Even during the first bitcoin rally, the trading volume reached only $650 billion. According to experts of the analytical platform Block Research, large investors prefer to carry out transactions from one account to another through third-party services in order to maintain complete anonymity. Therefore, the real number of transactions can even be twice the official amount.
However, not everything is as rosy as it seems at first glance. We already wrote that regulators can (and most likely will) become the main problem for digital assets in 2021.
According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the USA Ministry of Finance janet Yellen has actually declared war on bitcoin. Her announcement led to a massive profit taking by the whales on February 21-23, and a sharp 23% drop in bitcoin quotes. And now the North American Association of Securities Administrators (NASAA) has published an annual list of the most dangerous financial products, calling cryptocurrencies the top investment risk this year.
In the framework of the struggle of states for control over financial flows, one should not forget about the imminent appearance of the digital yuan, which can deal a serious blow to bitcoin. The United States and a number of other countries do not exclude the possibility of launching their own digital currencies (CBDC) as well.
In the meantime, as we wrote above, the market is at a crossroads. The total market capitalization for the week grew very slightly: from $1,410 billion to $1,444 billion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index left the neutral zone (55) again and headed towards the overbought zone, reaching 77 points out of 100 possible.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Judging by the latest indicators, the US economy is doing much better. Vaccinations are in full swing, the labor market is recovering, and GDP in the first quarter is ready to grow by almost 10%. According to Jerome Powell, consumer prices may even slightly exceed the target level of 2% as early as this summer.
However, there is still a long way to a complete recovery. It is this weekend, March 06-07, that the Senate will begin voting on amendments to the budget. And if legislators approve them, US citizens will receive a new gratuitous aid of $1,400 per person, and the overall stimulus package (QE) will amount to $1.9 trillion.
This injection of almost 2 trillion new dollars into the market could cause a serious weakening of the US currency and a return of risk appetite for investors. In this case, the sell-off of shares will stop and stock indices will go up again.
When making a forecast for the coming days, most experts (60%) do not exclude the continuation of the downtrend and the fall of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.1800. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are looking down. But the remaining 25% is already signaling that the pair is oversold.
The picture changes radically with the transition to monthly and quarterly forecasts. Here 70% of analysts expect that the scales will tilt towards the euro after the $1.9 trillion in aid appears on the US market, and the pair will go up. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270.
As for the events of the coming week, the publication of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday March 09, statistics on the US consumer market on Wednesday March 10, and Germany on Friday March 12, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate on Thursday March 11should be considered. According to forecasts, the rate is likely to remain unchanged, at zero. Therefore, the press conference of the ECB leadership, which will be held on the same day, will be of greater interest;
- GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on Monday, March 8, where he intends to outline the main parameters of the country's monetary policy while it tries to cope with the financial damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ING analysts, “overall, fiscal support should highlight the constructive prospects for the pound sterling in the second quarter of 2021. Further fiscal assistance will contribute to economic recovery and make the pound sterling a leader in the currency market of the G10 countries."
But until this happens, 50% of analysts expect that the GBP/USD pair will break through the support in the 1.3775-1.3800 area and rush to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. This forecast is supported by 85% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4, but only 65% of their “colleagues” on D1.
25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes, expect the pair to grow, and another 25% have taken a neutral position. At the same time, as in the case of EUR/USD and for the same reasons, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 60% when switching to the monthly forecast. The resistance levels are 1.3900, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4085 and 1.4185, the target is the February 24 high of 1.4240;
- USD/JPY. After the pair literally soared by 215 points last week and reached eight-month highs, it is clear that 100% of the trend indicators are colored green. But as for the oscillators, 35% are already signaling fully that it is overbought. Graphical analysis also points to the south. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation.
As for the experts, the scales have already begun to tilt in favor of a downward correction: there are 50% of bears' supporters now. 25% expect the USD/JPY pair to continue to rise, and another 25% remain neutral. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone. Support levels are 108.00, 106.70, 106.10 and 105.70; Resistance - 109.80;
- cryptocurrencies. A Glassnode study found that only 4 million bitcoins are in free float on the market. The third halving in May 2020 halved the miners' reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. It further enhances the shortage of coins in the market. And as you know, it is the limited emission of bitcoin that is one of its main advantages over gold and fiat currencies.
“Suddenly, buying bitcoin is no longer insignificant or risky,” wrote Mike Novogratz, head of Galaxy Digital crypto bank. On the contrary, it has become risky not to have BTC in the portfolio when central banks continue to print money. We don't have enough time to hire sales managers to reach all the institutional clients who want to understand and participate in the market."
Even such a supporter of gold as Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff has supported Novogratz. It was just recently, that this bitcoin skeptic called bitcoin the largest bubble in history and unflatteringly spoke about the mental abilities of cryptocurrency investors. And now he has admitted his mistake. “When I first heard about bitcoin, I didn't think that smart investors would be stupid enough to buy bitcoin. I was wrong," Schiff wrote.
Going back tothe head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, we should note that he has dramatically changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021 upwards. “It feels like,” says the banker, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000. I will not be surprised if we reach this mark by the end of this year."
An unexpected conspiracy forecast was given by an expert in the field of competitive intelligence. He believes the creation and support of the Bitcoin hype for years is no coincidence. In case the American financial elite manages to convince its creditors that having bitcoins is better than dollars, it can transfer all external debt of the US to this cryptocurrency over time. "As soon as this happens, the cryptocurrency will only have to collapse, and America's gigantic debt will actually be zeroed," the expert reflects.
Time will tell whether it is true or not. In the meantime, events in the US stock market play one of the leading roles in influencing bitcoin. Recall that about a year ago, the fall in the stock market due to the panic around the COVID-19 pandemic provoked a collapse of the cryptocurrency market.
And in conclusion, another funny crypto life hack. We have already talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin rates by observing the movement of the planets. There was also a story about another resident of the United States who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW. The farm receives energy from the car's battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter, which allows the owner to mine cryptocurrency while the car is moving.
And now a gamer and crypto enthusiast from China named Yifan Gu has become known. He managed to bypass the technical limitations for cryptocurrency mining, set in the Sony PlayStation 5, and adapted this game console for Ethereum mining, gaining a profitability of about $50 per week. Earlier, Yifan Gu adapted his MacBook Air with Apple M1 chip for mining this leading altcoin. However, at the ETH current rate, you can earn only $0.14 in one day on the MacBook Air.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.